Natural gas report week, August 25, 2022.
This week’s injection of 60 Bcf was in line with analysts’ expectations which ranged from 51 Bcf to 67 Bcf. Comparatively, last year’s injection was 32 Bcf and the five-year average of net injections is 46 Bcf. Current storage totals 2,579 Bcf which is 12.0% below the five-year average but still within the five-year historical range.
This week we’ll look at fundamentals and market movement across the report week.
Demand
Total demand fell by only 0.2 Bcf/d from last week. LNG export ships increased by two, totaling 21 on the week for an overall capacity of 79 Bcf, up 9 Bcf from last week.
Production
Production remained the same week-over-week at 97.0 Bcf/d. The natural gas rig count lost one over last week, totaling 159 rigs. Oil-directed rigs kept steady at 601 rigs.
Storage Forecast
The average rate of injections into storage is 6% lower than the five-year average at this point in refill season (which traditionally runs April through October). If the injection rate matches the five-year average of 9.8 Bcf/d through October 31, natural gas supply will total 3,292 Bcf, 353 Bcf lower than the five-year average of 3,645 Bcf.
September settled Thursday at $9.375/Dth up 4.5 cents from Wednesday’s close at $9.330/Dth but up 18.7 cents from last week.
Settled Thursday at $7.725/Dth, up 18.0 cents from the prior week.
The balance of the summer strip settled at $9.360/Dth, up 18.1 cents from the prior week. The winter forward (NOV22-MAR23) settled Thursday at $9.086/Dth, up 21.6 cents from last week.
Calendar Years 2022/2023/2024
CY22 settled Thursday at $9.426/Dth, up 18.8 cents from the prior week.
CY23 settled Thursday at $6.546/Dth, up 16.7 cents from the prior week.
CY24 settled Thursday at $5.217/Dth, up 13.7 cents from the prior week.
Settled Thursday at $92.52/barrel, up $2.41 from the prior week.
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