For natural gas report week July 1, 2021, the EIA reported a net increase in storage of 76 Bcf. The injection was at the high end of forecasts which ranged from 59 Bcf to 75 Bcf and averaged 68 Bcf. Last year for the same week there was an injection of 73 Bcf and the five-year average is an injection of 65 Bcf.
Working gas in storage was 2,558 Bcf as of Friday, June 25, 2021 per EIA estimates. Inventory was 510 Bcf (-16.6%) less than last year for the same week and 143 Bcf (-5.3%) below the five-year average of 2,701 Bcf.
Natural Gas Market Recap
August NYMEX
July NYMEX: July moved off the board Monday, June 28th, settling the month at $3.617/Dth.
August NYMEX: Settled Thursday at $3.661/Dth, up 1.1 cents from Wednesday’s close at $3.650/Dth.
12 Month Strip
Settled Thursday at $3.419/Dth, up 9.3 cents from the prior week.
Seasonal Strips
The summer strip (AUG21-OCT21) settled Thursday at $3.639/Dth, up 21.6 cents from the week prior. The winter strip (NOV21-MAR22) settled Thursday at $3.686/Dth, up 16.7 cents from the week prior.
Natural Gas Weekly
Natural Gas Report – July 1, 2021
Fundamentals
Overall supply averaged 97.7 Bcf/d last week as production fell by 0.4%, week over week. Meanwhile, imports from Canada grew by 4.8%.
Total demand rose by 6.0% from the prior report week, averaging 90.9 Bcf/d. Residential-commercial demand and use in power generation increased 2.8% and 10.5% respectively. Meanwhile, LNG pipeline receipts averaged 11.1 Bcf/d.
Up to this point in injection season, the average rate of injections is 13% lower than the five-year average. If the rate of injections matched the five-year average of 8.0 Bcf/d, inventory would be 3,576 Bcf at the close of refill season. That’s 143 Bcf lower than the five-year average of 3,719 Bcf.
Natural Gas Prices
When it comes to natural gas prices, the story across the last week is certainly the extreme heat that hit both coasts, but was particularly severe in the Pacific Northwest where record-breaking temperatures topped 110 degrees and drove high power generation related consumption and demand for cooling soared. NOAA forecasts for the next two weeks show the heat is expected to continue. This, combined with sluggish production, is continuing to push prices higher.
DEC21, settled at $3.752/Dth, up 18.4 cents
JAN22, settled at $3.814/Dth, up 17.6 cents
FEB22, settled at $3.728/Dth, up 16.8 cents
MAR22, settled at $3.473/Dth up 9.3 cents
APR22, settled at $2.964/Dth up 4.6 cents
Strips
24 Month, settled at $3.159/Dth up 5.1 cents
36 Month, settled at $3.010/Dth up 4.3 cents
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